Scouting the Draft

Every year there are surprising picks in the NBA draft. Some teams inevitably leave us wondering, what do they see in that player that I don't? Many of these surprise picks end up being huge busts. Some players that were passed up for these busts then go on have successful careers, gaining the title of steal of the draft.

Recently, the Memphis Grizzlies fired their scouts, which leaves today's post to beg the question: Are scouts necessary in this day and age with the widely available resources on the internet?

* Idea taken from Ridiculous Upside.

NBAdraft.net, DraftXpress, Yahoo! Sports, ESPN and RealGM.com all put out mock drafts each year; each a little different than each other, but very similar nonetheless. If these sources are willing to do the scouting for us as readers, why couldn't an NBA GM use them as well? Well, as far as we know they probably do, but that is something that a reporter would have to find out.

There is benefit to scouting players in real life, which is why it is the traditional method. NBA teams pay scouts to go see the players in person, to get a feel for their game and report any intangibles and such that would not show up on a stat sheet. That being said, teams are only given 2 picks in each draft (although many accumulate more via trades). That is 2 chances to get a player you like out of a total 60 available picks.

This leads teams to focus on the players generally considered to be around once it comes to their pick. So really teams are only looking at a handful of players for each pick. While it makes good sense to invite players to participate in drills prior to the draft, is it really necessary to send scouts out to random games throughout the college season and to Europe to look at players that will probably never make it to the team?

I guess that it could help to always have an eye out for a future legend, but the draft is lottery based, so there is no guarantee of your spot (if you are a weaker team). From a financial standpoint, wouldn't it make sense to simply not scout at all, wait for the draft lottery drawing to come out, then start some analysis of who the best players available are and who would fit your team best?
While that could end pretty poorly, the point of this entry is that it usually does for most teams anyway. Less than half of draft picks (much less, actually) end up having decent careers (most are out of the league after only a couple seasons). Many players who seemed destined for greatness get injured and never amount to anything or if lucky end up a journeyman.

While it is true that there are a few players each year that end up being great ballers, is that really because of great scouting?

The draft is a crap-shoot, so why bother putting so much effort into scouting? Most of the NBA's best players have not been the result of great scouting, but merely great luck.