Cap Space

It's the big thing in the NBA these days with all the big free agents coming up next off-season. So here's the topic of today's post:
With all the teams saving up Will any of it make a difference? Will a team like New York be able to bring in a top draw player that turns their franchise around? Will the Bulls or Blazers be able to bring in the player that complements their young core and puts them into title contention? Will any of the highly sought after free agents switch teams at all?

Despite a great demand for many grade A players, there is increasing doubt around the league that something big will happen for many teams. Due to the economy not being prime, a decreasing salary cap and the collective bargaining agreement rework coming up, teams are looking at less money to spend on player contracts here the next few seasons. Ticket sales were down last season and project to be down again this upcoming season. Owners therefore have incentives to reduce payroll for the near future besides just gaining expiring contracts in order to sign on someone for a max contract in 2010.

Which max contract deserving players will most likely to be wooed away?

LeBron James - Unfortunately, it is looking more and more unlikely. I say unfortunately because of LeBron's antics recently demonstrate just how big-headed he is becoming and therefore how only the Big Apple would be able to keep him in check. MVP or not, NY fans will let him know if he has a bad game (rare as it may be) or if he misses a game winner. It will push him to be the best (not really a problem for him) and may give him more limelight (unlikely). What could the Knicks offer that Cleveland can't? Less money made up through more endorsements... surrrreeee. A more complete roster... HA!!! An owner willing to pay the luxury tax in order to keep him happy and win an NBA championship... Check (though Cleveland has that, too). Counting these tallies, that gives Cleveland a large advantage.

Dwyane Wade - Miami is desperately trying to put together a team that can win now, just to get Wade to sign an extension this summer. Seems like he is badly wanted down there, and for good reason--he won them a championship. The heat have a promising core with Beasley and Chalmers (I guess Cook, too, though he is a whore for the 3pt shot). They may end up trading some of it for better post players (better meaning in their prime) like Boozer and Odom. I don't know if that is the best option as I still think Beasley is a stud small forward waiting to happen, but Wade is getting up there in age, especially considering his attack the basket style of play (though he should be able to extend that career with his midrange jumper and improving 3pt shot). If Miami can put together something this summer that puts the Heat in position to get to the 2nd round, Wade may feel he is up to the challenge of taking on the other superstars of the East. My guess is that Wade sticks around in Miami, seeing how it is an awesome place to live. Nothing basketball related, but it usually isn't in contract decisions.

Chris Bosh - Bryan Colangelo has done a wonderful job this summer transforming the Toronto Raptors from a team that finished 2nd to last in the East, to a team that will... make the playoffs? Probably, but who knows with the East getting deeper this year. The teams that made the playoffs last year have gotten better and the Wizards should be able to contend again. ORL, BOS, CLE, ATL are all better. If the Heat can pick up a real post player, they should be right there at 5th again. The sixers lost their pace now that Miller is signed on with the Blazers, but improvements to WAS and DET should push them out anyway. That leaves one spot left in the East, which last year went to the Bulls. I assume TOR will be good enough with a healthier Calderon and re-energized Bosh, combined with far more bench depth, to take the final spot (not saying it will be the 8th seed, just think the other teams will get in somewhere), but what about the Bulls? Did they not go 20-14 after the Salmons/Miller trade? Did they (minus Deng) not push the Celtics (minus Garnett and Powe) to seven games? Will D-Rose not improve? Oh yeah, they lost Ben Gordon, their leading scorer the last 4 seasons... Point is, Raptors make the playoffs, but are nowhere near good enough to make it to the 2nd round. This pisses Chris Bosh off as he knows there is no way to make it further with his ensemble of Euros and goes off and signs with the Bulls for many, many championships... Ok, so only in my dreams. Most likely story is that Bosh stays in his comfy home in Canada with his loyal fans and his interesting international city.

Amar'e Stoudemire - Amar'e is pissed off right now because he doesn't know where the Suns are going. News Flash! Neither do the Suns! They are caught in that awful state in NBA history where the team is too talented to rebuild but really needs to. It is bad for the team, bad for the players and bad for the fans. Steve Nash is old. He can guard no point guard in the league. He can still run a marathon and will push the ball every chance he gets. He can still make that incredible one-handed bounce-pass, in traffic. He can still shoot very, very well. Is that enough to convince Amar'e to stay after this upcoming season? Probably not. The Suns have no real young talent. Barbosa is going to turn 27 in a few months. Grant Hill is ancient, though still pretty efficient and still a smart player. Point is that the West is too talented for PHO to compete these days without getting someone good (I think Kirlenko would be a great fit in PHO, though he comes at a high price and I don't know how the Suns would be able to swing that trade).
How will the Suns be able to convince Stoudemire to stay? Is being able to offer him the most money enough? Probably not, though once again most contracts are not decided for basketball reasons. Of all these big names, Amar'e is the most likely to leave his teams. PHO undoubtedly knows this and has been listening to trade proposals for 6 months already. I hope for their sake they turn that kind of trade into a great rebuilding project if they do, but with Nash still there for the 3 more years, I don't know how that is going to go over. The Suns put themselves in a tough spot after the Marion for Shaq trade. They committed to win at all costs and fell flat. After parlaying that trade for Ben Wallace and Pavlovic (bought out contracts), it seems the Suns are committing to rebuilding mode. Then they extend Nash and resign Hill. No direction. No trade assets. Sorry Suns fans, there is nowhere to go. Means you might as well trade Amar'e and start the always inevitable, always undesirable process.

Joe Johnson - I think Joe loves being the face of the Hawks franchise. He has a great young core around him and the Hawks are showing lately that they are committed to being a team that reaches the playoffs. That combination is enough to keep the former Razorback in town.

Ray Allen - No longer the athletic sharp-shooter, but still quite accurate. He won't get a contract anywhere near his current one, but he will still be a valuable piece to a title contender. I think he stays in Boston to end his career and I think they are glad to have him, as long as he doesn't want too much money.

Manu Ginobli - If the Spurs can pull out one last ring this year, and with a healthy lineup this year they should have an excellent shot, Manu might as well retire. His body is giving out on him, though when he plays he still shows the same awesome production and style that made him a Spurs staple. This is another case of why would Many leave rather than why not.

Carlos Boozer - Boozer is seemingly on his way out of town as stands now, so chances are very likely he will not be on the Jazz for the 2010 season. My question is, at that point will he be on his third team in two years? Depends on who trades for him, his health this coming season and whether or not Miami is still interested in him in 2010. I think Boozer to the heat is a big upgrade over Haslem, though not worth Beasley. If the deal can go down without losing B-Easy, I think D-Wade signs that extension and Boozer signs one, too. I don't think this catapults the Heat past anyone in the East, though Wade is a monster, so come playoff time, who knows.